Florida politics prediction markets price the state's 2026 races as contracts on parties, from the governor's office and a U.S. Senate seat to the congressional districts, each paid on which party takes it.
| Market | Leader | Price | 24h | Other | Volume | Election |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida 14th District Odds 2026U.S. House · 2 outcomes · Polymarket · 2 venues | Democratic Party 70%No 31% | 70%-233 | down 2 points over 24h | No 31% | Kalshi 301K contracts · Polymarket $69K | — |
| Florida 7th District Odds 2026U.S. House · 2 outcomes · Polymarket · 2 venues | Republican Party 68%No 32% | 68%-213 | down 1 points over 24h | No 32% | Kalshi 72K contracts · Polymarket $34K | — |
| Florida 22nd District Odds 2026U.S. House · 2 outcomes · Polymarket · 2 venues | Democratic Party 55%No 45% | 55%-122 | — | No 45% | Kalshi 134K contracts · Polymarket $55K | — |
| Florida 9th District Odds 2026U.S. House · 2 outcomes · Polymarket · 2 venues | Republican Party 70%No 29% | 70%-233 | — | No 29% | Kalshi 94K contracts · Polymarket $25K | — |
Casey Askar ended September with 80,039 dollars on hand to Pia Dandiya's 1.1 million dollars, yet Polymarket had her party at only 54% on October 16, 2026, because a self-funding candidate can refill his account overnight.
Florida Predictions staff ·
The governor's race carries more trading on both Kalshi and Polymarket than any other Florida political contract. Ron DeSantis, a Republican, has been governor since January 8, 2019 and is not a candidate in 2026, so the office is open: the Division of Elections lists Byron Donalds as the Republican nominee and David Jolly as the Democratic one, alongside a Libertarian, several candidates with no party affiliation and two write-ins. Next comes the U.S. Senate special election for the seat Ashley Moody, a Republican, has held since January 21, 2025; Angie Nixon is the Democratic nominee. The House contests follow, each priced on the party that wins it, with pages for the 7th, 9th, 14th, 22nd and 27th districts, and the 14th draws the most House trading on both venues. Contracts on control of Congress are national questions and sit elsewhere.
Campaign events move these prices between now and the vote: published polls, changes in the race ratings, the fundraising reports candidates file with the Federal Election Commission, debates, and anything that alters a nominee. The August 18, 2026 primary settled the major-party nominees, and the district map is new. The Legislature passed the 2026 congressional plan in HB 1-D on April 29, 2026 and it was signed on May 4, so several members are running in districts other than the ones they were elected in; Debbie Wasserman Schultz, elected in the 25th, qualified in the 20th. Three constitutional amendments share the November 3 ballot, on the Budget Stabilization Fund, a tax exemption for tangible personal property on agricultural land and the homestead exemption. Once the polls close at 7 p.m., counties report unofficial returns by noon on November 7.
A race rating sorts a seat into a column; a contract price says how far from even the money sits, and it keeps moving after the raters stop. Two cautions apply to every Florida political contract. First, it pays on a party. Kalshi's governor contract settles on the party of the governor inaugurated after the 2026 election, and Polymarket counts a candidate only as the party's nominee, so a price follows the party's candidate, whoever that turns out to be, rather than one name. Second, the exchanges keep different clocks. Kalshi expects to settle the governor's race by January 8, 2027 and the Senate and House seats by January 4, 2027, earlier if media organizations agree on the winner, while Polymarket's statewide contracts wait for the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC to agree, or for certification.
A political contract asks whether one party wins a race, such as the Democratic Party holding Florida's 14th Congressional District on November 3, 2026, and pays a fixed amount if it does. Its price is read as the probability traders give that party.
The governor's race, the U.S. Senate special election and the races for Florida's twenty-eight U.S. House seats, each priced on which party wins on November 3, 2026. Contracts on control of Congress are national questions rather than Florida ones.
On the party. Kalshi pays its governor contracts on the party of the governor inaugurated after the 2026 election, and Polymarket counts a candidate as a party's representative only as its nominee, so a name on a contract stands for that party.
Byron Donalds for the Republicans and David Jolly for the Democrats, with Libertarian Scott Jewett, five candidates with no party affiliation and two write-in candidates also qualified, per the Division of Elections' candidate list for November 3, 2026.
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