Kalshi
PolymarketFlorida's 25th District: The Market Bets on Moskowitz in a Seat Trump Carried
The Florida 25th District odds 2026 board prices Jared Moskowitz as a strong favorite in a district Donald Trump carried, and the market rests on the Democrat's money and profile outweighing the seat's lean. Florida voters in the new 25th choose on November 3, 2026 between Moskowitz, the Democratic nominee, Scott Singer, the Republican, Peter Jassenoff, the Libertarian, and Michaelangelo Hamilton, a qualified write-in candidate. The live board above carries Kalshi's and Polymarket's current prices.
Who Is on the Florida 25th District Ballot
The Division of Elections' candidate list for the November 3, 2026 general election shows four candidates for U.S. Representative in District 25 with a status of Qualified: Jared Moskowitz of the Florida Democratic Party, Scott Singer of the Republican Party of Florida, Peter Jassenoff of the Libertarian Party of Florida, and Michaelangelo Hamilton as a write-in. Four other Republicans, George Moraitis, Dan Franzese, Joe Kaufman and Raven Harrison, are listed as Defeated, as is Democrat Oliver Larkin.
Neither major-party nominee has represented this district. The Clerk of the House's member list, published October 1, 2026, names Moskowitz as the member for the 23rd District and Debbie Wasserman Schultz as the member for the 25th, both under the lines drawn before 2026. The candidate list now has Wasserman Schultz qualified in District 20 and Moskowitz in District 25. The lines moved because the Legislature passed a new congressional plan in HB 1-D on April 29, 2026, which was signed into law on May 4, 2026, according to the Florida Senate.
The primaries on August 18, 2026 settled the matchup. Ballotpedia's results have Moskowitz beating Larkin with 63.5% of the Democratic vote. The Republican primary was a five-way split: Singer won with 31.4%, ahead of Moraitis at 27.5%, Franzese at 25.7%, Kaufman at 12.3% and Harrison at 3.2%. Singer heads into the general election having won his nomination with less than a third of his own party's primary vote.
Why the Florida 25th District Price Favors Moskowitz
What the price is saying is that this race is about the candidate, not the map. On October 23, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket each had the Democratic Party at 85% in the 25th, and Polymarket had the Republican Party at 16%, a point under Kalshi's 17%. That makes Moskowitz roughly a five-in-six favorite in a seat that leans the other way on paper.
The lean is real. Ballotpedia, citing The Downballot, puts the presidential vote of November 5, 2024 inside the 2026 lines at 54.2% for Trump to 45.0% for Kamala Harris, and Cook's Partisan Voter Index rates the new district R+3. Inside Elections, as Ballotpedia quotes it, describes the 25th as having "no true predecessor": 46% of its population comes from the old 23rd District, 30% from the old 24th and 16% from the old 25th. So Moskowitz carries his name onto a ballot where fewer than half of the voters have had him as their member before.
The market treats that as a gap the Democrat can close, for three reasons on the record. First, Moskowitz has run and won in a close seat before: the Clerk of the House's official statistics for November 5, 2024 show him holding the old 23rd by 196,311 votes to 178,006 over Kaufman, who ran again this year in the Republican primary for the 25th and finished fourth. Second, his profile crosses party lines. Ballotpedia's candidate profile notes that he served as director of the Florida Department of Emergency Management under Governor Ron DeSantis before going to Congress, and his campaign presents him as a bipartisan problem solver. Third, he has the larger campaign. Federal Election Commission figures as Ballotpedia tabulates them show Moskowitz's committee with $5.09M raised and $1.82M in cash through September 30, 2026, against $3.26M raised and $467K in cash for Singer through October 14, 2026.
Singer has his own record to run on. Ballotpedia lists him as mayor of Boca Raton from 2018 to 2026, and he has outside help: about $905K in independent spending supporting him, most of it from Defending Our Values PAC, against about $560K supporting Moskowitz from Think Big and New Democrat Majority. That is the one financial column where the Republican leads, and it is the reason the price does not sit higher.
The forecasters moved toward the market this month. In Ballotpedia's table for October 20, 2026, the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Decision Desk all rate the race Lean Democratic, and Inside Elections still calls it a Toss-up. A week earlier Cook had it as a Toss-up, and at the end of September Sabato did too. Lean Democratic describes a small edge in a competitive race; the 85% Kalshi and Polymarket each quoted on October 23, 2026 describes something firmer. The board is running ahead of every rating.
Trading has been heavy by the standard of Florida House boards. As of October 23, 2026, the board had drawn about 532K contracts on Kalshi, roughly 292K of them on the Democratic side, and about $43K on Polymarket, about $27K of it on the Republican side. Kalshi alone recorded close to 90K contracts in the 24 hours to that afternoon. On Polymarket the dollars lean toward Singer even as the price leans toward Moskowitz, which means there is real money on the other side of the read.
The Case Against the Florida 25th District Read
The strongest case against the read is that the market is pricing a reputation, and the district has not voted for it. A reader who holds that view would point out that Trump won the new lines by about nine points in 2024, that Inside Elections still rates the race a Toss-up, and that most voters in the 25th will be seeing Moskowitz's name on their congressional ballot for the first time. On that view the 85% that Kalshi and Polymarket each quoted for the Democratic Party on October 23, 2026 treats a Lean Democratic race as close to settled, and a Republican-leaning seat with a well-funded mayor as a long shot it is not.
There is more to that argument than the map. Outside groups have spent more for Singer than for Moskowitz, and the cash figures compare different dates: Moskowitz's are through September 30, while Singer's already include the first two weeks of October. A strong pre-general report from Singer, or late outside spending on his side, would narrow the money gap the price leans on. A reader who holds that view would say the ratings, not the board, have the size of the edge right.
The price sits on the other side of that argument. It holds that a candidate with a statewide emergency-management record, a recent win in a close district and a larger campaign is worth more than a three-point PVI. That is the read the days before November 3, 2026 will test.
What Changes the Florida 25th District Read
The read is that Moskowitz's profile and money carry a Republican-leaning seat. It would be wrong if the late evidence shows the lean holding:
• The money reports: Pre-general reports cover activity through October 14, 2026. Moskowitz's figures for the first half of October, and any late independent spending for Singer beyond the roughly $905K on file, show whether the money gap is widening or closing.
• The ratings: Ballotpedia updates its table weekly. A move by Inside Elections from Toss-up to Lean Democratic would bring every forecaster to the market's side; a move back to Toss-up by Cook or Sabato would say the board is too far ahead.
• A public poll: Ballotpedia lists no poll of the race as of October 23, 2026. A first public survey of the new district would be the first direct test of the price.
• Early voting: The mandatory early-voting period runs October 24 to October 31, 2026, and the deadline to request a mailed ballot passed at 5 p.m. on October 22.
• The count: Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time on November 3, 2026, and a voted mail ballot must reach the Supervisor of Elections by 7 p.m. that day. The Elections Canvassing Commission certifies the official returns by 8 a.m. on November 17, 2026.
When the Florida 25th District Market Resolves
Polymarket resolves on the party of the candidate who wins the FL-25 seat in the November 3, 2026 election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting, and on the official results reported by the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity. Kalshi resolves its Democratic contract Yes if the House member sworn in for FL-25 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, and its Republican contract on the same test; it lists an expected settlement of January 4, 2027 and allows accelerated determination once a consensus of media organizations projects the winner. A winner with neither major-party label counts, on Polymarket, with the party he most recently said he would caucus with.
Related Florida Markets
The 25th is one of several Florida House races the venues price as competitive under the new map. The Florida 22nd District odds cover another seat whose member moved districts this year, and the Florida 27th District odds, the Florida 7th District odds, the Florida 14th District odds and the Florida 9th District odds carry the others. Voters in the 25th also choose a governor and a senator on the same ballot: the Florida governor odds and the Florida Senate odds cover those races, and the Florida elections page collects the state's election markets.
