Florida Elections Prediction Markets & 2026 Odds
Who will win Florida's 2026 races for governor, the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House, as prediction markets price them: the November 3 contests in ballot order, beside the dates Floridians vote.
The ballot
7 racesAll politics →Florida Governor Odds 2026
Florida Senate Odds 2026
Florida 7th District Odds 2026
| Race | Leader | Price | 24h | Other | Volume | Election |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. House 5 races | ||||||
| Florida 9th District Odds 20269th District · 2 outcomes · Polymarket · 2 venues | Republican Party 70%No 29% | 70%-233 | — | No 29% | Kalshi 94K contracts · Polymarket $25K | — |
| Florida 14th District Odds 202614th District · 2 outcomes · Polymarket · 2 venues | Democratic Party 70%No 31% | 70%-233 | down 2 points over 24h | No 31% | Kalshi 301K contracts · Polymarket $69K | — |
| Florida 22nd District Odds 202622nd District · 2 outcomes · Polymarket · 2 venues | Democratic Party 55%No 45% | 55%-122 | — | No 45% | Kalshi 134K contracts · Polymarket $55K | — |
| Florida 27th District Odds 202627th District · 2 outcomes · Polymarket · 2 venues | Republican Party 67%No 33% | 67%-203 | up 1 points over 24h | No 33% | Kalshi 112K contracts · Polymarket $39K | — |
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Top Florida Election Markets
This page lists Florida's November 3, 2026 contests in the order of the ballot rather than by trading, and money never reorders it. The governor's race comes first, then the special election for the U.S. Senate, then the House seats by district number, from the 1st to the 28th. Those districts are the ones in the map the Legislature passed in April 2026, not the districts the sitting members were elected in, so a district number here can describe different ground than the same number did in 2024. Pages are written for the 7th, 9th, 14th, 22nd and 27th, and each other seat joins the list when its page does. Every row prints both parties' contracts as the exchanges quote them. A party at the top of a row leads on price only, since no vote has been counted.
What Moves Florida Election Markets
The Division of Elections' calendar sets the pace. Registration for the general election closed on October 5, 2026, and a request to have a ballot mailed must arrive by 5 p.m. on October 22. Every county holds early voting from October 24 to October 31, and a Supervisor of Elections may offer optional days beyond it. On Election Day the polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time, and a mailed ballot counts only if the supervisor receives it by 7 p.m. that night; overseas voters alone get a 10-day extension. Counties report unofficial returns by noon on November 7, a race close enough to trigger a machine recount produces second unofficial returns by 3 p.m. on November 12, county official returns are due by noon on November 16, and the Elections Canvassing Commission certifies the results by 8 a.m. on November 17.
Why Florida Election Prediction Markets
A poll describes a race at one moment; a contract puts a price on how it ends and updates with every trade. Reading one starts with its settlement rule, which differs by race and by exchange. For the House seats, Kalshi pays on the party of the member sworn in for the term that begins in 2027 and expects to settle by January 4, 2027, while Polymarket follows a consensus of credible reporting and falls back on the Federal Election Commission's official results. For the governor's race, Kalshi waits for the inauguration, expected to settle by January 8, 2027, and Polymarket for matching calls from the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC, or else for certification. Both exchanges allow an early settlement once the race is called. Each race's market page carries both rules in full.
Questions readers ask
How do election prediction markets work?
An election contract asks whether a party wins a named race, for example the Republican Party in Florida's 27th Congressional District on November 3, 2026, and pays a fixed amount if it does. Its trading price is read as the chance the market gives that result.
What is on the Florida ballot on November 3, 2026?
The governor's race, a special election for one U.S. Senate seat, Florida's twenty-eight U.S. House seats, the Attorney General, Chief Financial Officer and Commissioner of Agriculture, and three constitutional amendments, per the Division of Elections. Local offices and questions vary by county.
When do Florida election contracts settle?
Kalshi expects to settle the Senate and House contracts by January 4, 2027 and the governor's by January 8, 2027, sooner if media organizations agree on the winner. Polymarket's governor and Senate contracts settle once the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC all call the race, or on certification.
When can I vote in Florida's 2026 election?
On Tuesday, November 3, 2026, from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time, or during early voting from October 24 to 31, per the Division of Elections. A request to have a ballot mailed is due by 5 p.m. on October 22, and a voted mail ballot must reach the Supervisor of Elections by 7 p.m. on Election Day.
Are election prediction markets legal in Florida?
This site's legal status page reports what Florida law, the Gaming Control Commission and the courts have said about prediction-market exchanges, each item dated, and draws no conclusion beyond them. Nothing on Florida Predictions is legal or voting advice.