Polymarket
KalshiFlorida's 11th District: An Open Seat Leaves Strada Favored, With More Doubt Than the Raters Allow
The Florida 11th District race 2026 is an open seat, Republican Joe Strada against Democrat James Pericola, and the market reads it as a Republican hold that is a little less certain than the professional raters say. Daniel Webster, the Republican who represents the 11th, is not on the ballot, and voters in the district choose his successor on November 3, 2026, with Libertarian Ralph Groves as a third option. What the price is saying is that an open seat on a Republican-leaning map, with a nominee who came through a close primary, carries more upset risk than a safe incumbent would. The live board above carries each venue's current price for both parties.
Who Is Running for the Open Florida 11th District Seat
The Division of Elections lists three candidates as Qualified for U.S. Representative in District 11: Strada of the Republican Party of Florida, Pericola of the Florida Democratic Party, and Groves of the Libertarian Party of Florida. No one else remains: the list marks four Republicans and two Democrats as defeated in the August primary, and six other filers as having not qualified.
The Clerk of the House's member data, published October 1, 2026, still records Daniel Webster as the Republican member for the 11th, elected November 5, 2024. He does not appear anywhere on the 2026 candidate list, and Ballotpedia records that he retired from public office rather than seek another term. The 11th is also on new lines: the Florida Senate records that the 2026 congressional plan passed in HB 1-D on April 29, 2026 and was signed into law on May 4, 2026, so the district Strada and Pericola are contesting is not the one Webster last won.
In the profiles they submitted to Ballotpedia, Strada describes himself as a business owner running on immigration enforcement, government accountability and a shortage of skilled workers, and Pericola as an attorney who began his career on Senator Bob Graham's staff and later served in the Clinton administration, running on household costs, Social Security and Medicare, and voting rights. Groves had reported no receipts to the Federal Election Commission in Ballotpedia's table.
How the Florida 11th District Primary Shaped the Price
The Republican nomination was the closest race either party ran here. On August 18, 2026, Strada took 27,389 votes, 33.5% of the Republican primary, against 26,996 for Carey Baker, a margin of 393 votes in a five-way field, with Tim Wilkins third at 25.4%. A nominee who won with a third of his party's vote has not yet shown how much of the rest of it he holds.
The Democratic side was cleaner. In the same August 18, 2026 primaries, Pericola won 20,477 votes, 46.3%, against Royal Webster (27.5%) and Dan Williams (26.2%). The two primaries together drew about 81,800 Republican votes and 44,200 Democratic ones, a gap that says more about who turned out in August than about November, but which points the same way as the district's partisan numbers.
Those numbers are the base of the read. Ballotpedia lists the district heading into 2026 at R+7 on Cook's Partisan Voter Index, the 165th most Republican seat in the country, with a 2024 presidential vote of 57.4% for Donald Trump to 41.7% for Kamala Harris on The Downballot's figures. Webster won the 11th as drawn for 2024 on November 5, 2024 with 269,277 votes to 176,726 for Barbie Harden Hall, per the Clerk of the House's official statistics, a margin of about 21 points. A Republican nominee who matched the presidential baseline would win comfortably; the market's question is only how far below it an open-seat nominee could fall.
Why the Florida 11th District Price Sits Below the Ratings
On October 29, 2026, Kalshi had the Republican Party at 87%, a point under Polymarket's 88%, and Polymarket had the Democratic Party at 12%, two points under Kalshi's 14%. That is roughly a one-in-eight chance of a Democratic upset, a price that treats the seat as safe in practice while leaving more room than the raters do. In Ballotpedia's table for October 27, 2026, the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections rate the race Solid Republican, Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Safe Republican, and Decision Desk alone has it at Likely Republican. None of the four has changed its rating since July.
The market rests on the same fundamentals as the raters and discounts them for the open seat. Without Webster, the Republican vote has to come home to a first-time nominee, and the price carries that uncertainty as a few points the ratings do not.
The money argues the other way. Federal Election Commission figures through October 14, 2026, as Ballotpedia tabulates them, show Strada with $5.51M raised, $4.65M spent and $860K in cash, against $226K raised, $191K spent and $35.2K in cash for Pericola. That is about 24 times the challenger's cash. Ballotpedia's satellite-spending table adds $218K spent in support of Strada by Conservatives for American Excellence Inc. and nothing spent for Pericola.
The trading splits by venue. As of October 29, 2026, Kalshi had cleared about 57.0K contracts, 38.4K of them on the Republican side, while Polymarket had taken about $45.5K, $29.1K of it on the Democratic contract and $16.4K on the Republican. Over the last 24 hours the two venues saw about 1,305 contracts on Kalshi and $1.3K on Polymarket, steady activity for a race the raters call safe.
The Case Against the Florida 11th District Read
The strongest case against the read is that the open-seat discount is not real. Three of the four raters put the race in their safest Republican category, the district's presidential lean is seven points, and Strada enters the last week with roughly $825K more in cash than Pericola, plus outside support that Pericola does not have. A reader who holds that view would say Polymarket's 12% Democratic price on October 29, 2026 is the residue long-shot contracts usually carry, not a measure of this race, and that the Republican price belongs in the 90s.
That reader also has the primary arithmetic on their side. Strada's narrow August win was a five-way Republican contest, and a split field in a primary says little about whether the same voters back the nominee in a general election against a Democrat. Neither Baker nor Wilkins is on the November ballot.
The market's answer is that open seats in new districts are where upsets come from when they come, and that one in eight is a modest allowance for that. No public poll of the race appears on Ballotpedia's page as of October 29, 2026, so the allowance rests on the shape of the race rather than on a survey.
What Changes the Florida 11th District Read
The read is that the 11th stays Republican with somewhat more risk than an incumbent's seat. It would be wrong in either direction if the evidence moves:
• A public poll: none is listed for the race as of October 29, 2026. A survey with Pericola within single digits would argue the price is too high on the Republican side; a 20-point Strada lead would argue it is too low.
• The ratings: Ballotpedia updates its table weekly. A Decision Desk move to Safe would put every rater at its safest category; any move toward Lean would be the first sign the raters see what the price allows for.
• Outside money: spending for Pericola by a party committee or allied group in the final week, which the satellite table did not show as of October 29, 2026.
• Early voting: the mandatory early-voting period runs through October 31, 2026, and counties may add optional days.
• Election night and certification: polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time on November 3, 2026, a voted mail ballot must reach the Supervisor of Elections by 7 p.m. that day, and the Elections Canvassing Commission certifies the official returns by 8 a.m. on November 17, 2026.
When the Florida 11th District Market Resolves
Kalshi lists the race under its KXHOUSERACE-FL11-26 contracts. Its Republican contract resolves Yes if the House member sworn in for FL-11 for the term beginning in 2027 is a Republican, and its Democratic contract on the same test for the Democratic Party; the expected settlement is January 4, 2027, with accelerated determination once a consensus of media organizations projects the winner. Polymarket resolves on the party of the candidate who wins the FL-11 seat in the November 3, 2026 election, as shown by a consensus of credible reporting, and on official results reported by the Federal Election Commission if the result is ambiguous. A winner without a Democratic or Republican label, which would include Groves, is counted with the party he most recently said he would caucus with.
Related Florida Markets
The same ballot carries the statewide races, priced on the Florida governor odds and Florida Senate odds pages. The Florida 12th District odds follow a Republican incumbent on a seat with the same seven-point lean, and the Florida 16th District odds follow another seat left open by a Republican retirement. The Florida 7th District odds cover a Republican seat the market prices as more competitive. Every Florida race with a market is on the elections page.
