Polymarket
KalshiFlorida's Senate Special Election: The Market Treats Moody's Seat as Safe
The Florida Senate odds 2026 board prices the special election as close to settled, and the market rests on an appointed incumbent, a lead in every poll completed in October and a state that has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since 2012. Florida voters decide on November 3, 2026 who finishes the term Marco Rubio left: Ashley Moody, the Republican appointed to the seat in January 2025, Angie Nixon, the Democratic nominee, or Neil Gillespie, who has no party affiliation. The live board above carries Kalshi's and Polymarket's current prices.
Who Is on the Florida Senate Ballot
The Division of Elections' candidate list for the November 3, 2026 general election shows three candidates for United States Senator with a status of Qualified: Ashley Moody of the Republican Party of Florida, Angie Nixon of the Florida Democratic Party and Neil Gillespie, with no party affiliation. Every other filer on the list was defeated in a primary, withdrew or did not qualify.
This is a special election for the Class III seat. According to Ballotpedia, Rubio resigned on January 20, 2025 after the Senate confirmed him as Secretary of State, Governor Ron DeSantis appointed Moody the next day, and the winner serves the rest of a term that runs to January 2029. Wikidata records Moody as United States senator for that seat from January 21, 2025, and the Senate's own list, last updated October 8, 2026, names her and Rick Scott as Florida's two senators. Before the appointment Moody was Florida's attorney general from 2019 to 2025 and, as Ballotpedia records it, a circuit judge in Florida's 13th Judicial Circuit from 2007 to 2017. Nixon was elected to the Florida House of Representatives in 2022.
The primaries on August 18, 2026 sorted the field cleanly. Ballotpedia reports that Moody won the Republican primary with 79.6% of the vote against 13.7% for Chris Gleason, and that Nixon beat Alex Vindman in the Democratic primary by 55.9 to 44.1. Moody's margin means the Republican side enters November united, while Nixon's eleven-point win leaves the Democratic side with a nominee most primary voters chose.
Why the Florida Senate Price Favors Moody
What the price is saying is that an appointed incumbent who leads the October polls, in a state that has voted Republican statewide by double digits twice running, is close to settled, even after a summer in which her opponent raised more money. On October 16, 2026, Polymarket had the Republican Party at 91%, a point below Kalshi's 92%, so Polymarket's was the cheapest Yes on that side. That puts Moody at roughly nine in ten.
Kalshi had the Democratic Party at 8% on October 16, 2026, against Polymarket's 10%, which means the two venues differ by two points on Nixon's side and agree that she is a long shot. On Kalshi the Democratic contract is where the trading has been: it carried about 963K of the board's 1.41 million contracts as of October 16, 2026, so most of Kalshi's trading on this question has gone into pricing how small Nixon's chance is. Polymarket's board had drawn about $229K, about $89K of it on the Democratic side.
The record behind the read is short and consistent. The Clerk of the House's official statistics show Rick Scott re-elected to Florida's other seat on November 5, 2024 with 5,977,706 votes to 4,603,077 for Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. Ballotpedia records Rubio's 2022 re-election at 57.7 to 41.3, and notes that the last Democrat elected to the Senate from Florida was Bill Nelson in 2012. The four outlets in Ballotpedia's ratings table agree: as of October 13, 2026 the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections rated the race Solid Republican, Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe Republican and Decision Desk Likely Republican.
Money no longer points the same way. In October Quarterly reports filed with the Federal Election Commission on October 15, 2026, each covering July 30 to September 30, Angie For Florida, Nixon's campaign committee, reported 7.20 million dollars in contributions, and Moody for Florida, Moody's principal campaign committee, reported 1.84 million dollars. Nixon's committee ended September with 4.11 million dollars in cash on hand against 2.82 million dollars for Moody's, which spent 6.32 million dollars in the period to Nixon's 3.31 million dollars. Moody's second authorized committee, a Republican nominee fund, reported 441.50 dollars in contributions for July 1 to September 30 in its own report, filed October 14, so the principal committee carries her campaign's money. At the end of July the gap ran the other way: Ballotpedia's summary of FEC reports had Moody at 11.3 million dollars raised through July 29, 2026 against Nixon's 975,000 dollars. Outside money still leans to Moody; Ballotpedia records a group called Stronger Safer Nation reporting an ad campaign of about 879,000 dollars supporting her on September 30, 2026. The price sat near nine in ten on October 16, the day after the reports were filed, which says the venues read the summer's money as arriving too late to change the result. The filings are covered in full in Nixon outraised Moody over the summer.
The Case Against the Florida Senate Read
The strongest case against the read is that the polls and the money both describe a closer race than nine in ten. Ballotpedia lists six surveys taken from late September to October 10. A St. Pete Polls survey for Florida Politics of 836 likely voters, October 5 to October 7, 2026, had Moody at 46.8 and Nixon at 44.9. Change Research's survey of 1,063 likely voters, September 25 to September 27, 2026, had Moody ahead 48 to 47. The MDW Communications survey for EDGE Communications, the largest of the set with 2,351 likely voters, had Moody ahead 47.6 to 42.4. YouGov had her ahead 49 to 44.
A reader who holds the other view would say that a five-point lead in a large sample, and leads of one or two points in two others, are not what a price near nine in ten usually describes, and that a challenger who outraised the incumbent about four to one over the summer and entered October with more cash has the means to close the rest. The same polling firms show the governor's race in a similar range, yet the governor's board on this site prices the Republican about ten points lower. Either the venues see something in the Senate race the surveys miss, or the Senate price has run ahead of the evidence.
The price answers that Moody is already the senator, still has 2.82 million dollars on hand in her principal committee, leads in Stetson University's October 1 to October 9 survey by 52 to 41, and faces a nominee whose last race was for a state House seat she won in 2022. Money raised in the last weeks of a race has little time to become votes. That is a coherent read. It is also the read a single independent poll showing a tie among likely voters would test hardest.
What Changes the Florida Senate Read
The read is that incumbency and a steady polling lead hold up in a Republican-leaning state, whatever the late money does. It would be wrong if late evidence shows the race inside the margin:
• The next surveys: Any independent poll of likely voters before November 3, 2026. A Nixon lead, or a tie in a large sample, would mean the nine-in-ten price is out of line with the race.
• The ratings: Ballotpedia updates its table weekly. A move by any outlet away from Solid or Safe Republican would be the first rating change of the fall.
• Pre-general money: Reports to the Federal Election Commission covering October 1 to October 14 are due October 22, 2026. They show whether Nixon's summer pace, about four times Moody's from July 30 to September 30, held into October.
• Mail and early voting: Requests to have a vote-by-mail ballot mailed close at 5 p.m. on October 22, 2026, and the mandatory early-voting period runs October 24 to October 31, 2026.
• The count: Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time on November 3, 2026. The Elections Canvassing Commission certifies the official returns by 8 a.m. on November 17, 2026.
When the Florida Senate Market Resolves
Kalshi resolves its Republican contract Yes if a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a senator of Florida for the term beginning in 2027, and its Democratic contract on the same test, with an expected settlement of January 4, 2027 and accelerated determination once a consensus of media organizations projects the winner. Polymarket resolves on the winner of the 2026 Florida special election, run-offs included, once the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC all call it for the same candidate, and on the official certification if they do not. On Polymarket, a candidate running as an independent counts as neither Democrat nor Republican, which matters for Gillespie and nobody else on this ballot.
Related Florida Markets
The Senate race shares the ballot with the open Florida governor odds, where the venues are less sure of a Republican result. Florida's five most competitive House races on the venues' prices each have a page: the Florida 22nd District odds, the Florida 27th District odds, the Florida 7th District odds, the Florida 14th District odds and the Florida 9th District odds. The Florida elections page collects the state's election markets.
