Polymarket
KalshiFlorida's 13th District: Luna's Seat Is Priced on the New Map, Not on Gray's Money
The Florida 13th District race 2026 is a contest between Anna Paulina Luna, the Republican who holds the seat, and Leela Gray, the Democratic nominee, and the market rests on the map Florida drew this year more than on anything either campaign has done. Voters in the district choose on November 3, 2026, with Tony D'Arrigo, who has no party affiliation, also on the ballot. The live board above carries Kalshi's and Polymarket's current prices for each party.
Who Is Running in the Florida 13th District Race
The Division of Elections lists three candidates as Qualified for U.S. Representative in District 13: Luna of the Republican Party of Florida, Gray of the Florida Democratic Party, and D'Arrigo, who files with no party affiliation. No write-in candidate qualified. The Clerk of the House's member data, published October 1, 2026, records Luna as the Republican member for the 13th, elected November 5, 2024.
Luna reached November without a contest: Ballotpedia records that the Republican primary was canceled once no other Republican qualified. Gray had to win hers. On August 18, 2026 she took 32,033 votes, 65.1% of the Democratic primary, against Brandt Robinson and John Liccione, a margin which settled the nomination early and left her free to spend the autumn on Luna. In the profile she submitted to Ballotpedia, Gray describes a 30-year Army career that ended at the rank of brigadier general and a campaign built on the cost of insurance, housing and health care.
The district Luna is defending is not the one she won. The Florida Senate records that the 2026 congressional plan passed in HB 1-D on April 29, 2026 and was signed into law on May 4, 2026. Ballotpedia, using The Downballot's figures, reports that Donald Trump carried the 13th as now drawn 56.2% to 42.9% in 2024, and Cook's Partisan Voter Index rates the new seat R+6, the 182nd most Republican district in the country, which makes it a Republican seat but not one of the state's safest.
Why the Florida 13th District Price Leans Republican
What the price is saying is that a Republican seat with a six-point partisan lean and an incumbent on the ballot is the Republicans' to lose. On October 23, 2026, Polymarket had the Republican Party at 71%, two points under Kalshi's 73%, which made Polymarket's the cheapest Yes on Luna's side. Kalshi had the Democratic Party at 28% that day, against 30% on Polymarket. In plain terms, the venues give Gray a little better than a one-in-four chance.
The record behind that price is Luna's last election. The Clerk of the House's official statistics show her winning the 13th on November 5, 2024 with 225,636 votes to 185,930 for Whitney Fox, a margin of a little under ten points on the old lines. Her margin on the old lines was a little under ten points; Trump's on the new lines, on Ballotpedia's numbers, was about thirteen. The market treats that combination, a winning incumbent and a seat that leans further her way at the top of the ticket, as the structural reason to price the race as hers to lose rather than as a coin flip.
The professional raters sit close to the price. In Ballotpedia's table for October 20, 2026, the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections rate the race Lean Republican, and Sabato's Crystal Ball and Decision Desk rate it Likely Republican. That is a split between the two softest Republican categories, and a price in the low seventies sits between them.
What the Florida 13th District Money and Trading Show
Money is the one place where the race looks closer than the map. Federal Election Commission figures through October 14, 2026, as Ballotpedia tabulates them, show Luna with $4.35M raised, $3.74M spent and $747K in cash, and Gray with $2.92M raised, $2.26M spent and $656K in cash. A challenger within about $90K of an incumbent in cash three weeks before Election Day is not the usual shape of a Likely Republican seat. D'Arrigo had reported $28K in receipts as of June 30, 2026.
Outside groups have done little to change that picture. Ballotpedia's satellite-spending table shows about $150K spent in support of Luna, almost all of it from Latinos for Conservative Values (about $129K) and the Club for Growth PAC (about $20K), and about $1.4K in support of Gray. Neither party's House committee appears in it.
The trading tells two stories depending on the venue. As of October 23, 2026, Kalshi had cleared about 73K contracts on the race, roughly 59K of them on the Republican side, while Polymarket had taken about $34K, slightly more of it on the Democratic contract ($17.8K) than on the Republican ($16.2K). Polymarket's last 24 hours accounted for about $15K of that total, which means much of the dollar trading on this board is recent.
The Case Against the Florida 13th District Read
The strongest case against the read is that the raters have been moving toward Gray and the price has not followed far enough. Ballotpedia's history shows every outlet at Likely Republican on July 21, 2026; by September 29 Cook had moved to Lean Republican, and Inside Elections followed on October 6. Two of the four now describe the race as competitive. A reader who holds that view would say a seat that two major forecasters call Lean is closer to two-in-three than to three-in-four for the incumbent.
The cash position supports that reader. Luna has outraised Gray, but she has also spent more, and the two enter the final weeks with similar reserves. Gray's primary showing, nearly two-thirds of the Democratic vote in a three-way field, suggests a nominee whose party is not divided behind her. And no public poll of the district appears on Ballotpedia's race page as of October 23, 2026, so the price rests on the map and the incumbency rather than on any measurement of these two candidates against each other.
The answer the market gives is that the partisan lean of the new 13th is the fact that does not move, and that a challenger with money still has to win voters who supported Trump by thirteen points. That is a reasonable read. It is also one that a single good poll for Gray would test.
What Changes the Florida 13th District Read
The read is that the map and incumbency carry Luna. It would be wrong if the evidence shows the district voting closer than its presidential baseline:
• A public poll: none is listed for the race as of October 23, 2026. A survey showing Gray within the margin of error would cut against the price; a comfortable Luna lead would support it.
• The ratings: Ballotpedia updates its table weekly. A move by Sabato or Decision Desk from Likely to Lean Republican would put all four raters on the competitive side; a Cook or Inside Elections move back to Likely would support the price.
• Outside money: party committees or allied super PACs entering the race in the last two weeks, which the satellite table did not show as of October 23, 2026.
• Early voting: the mandatory early-voting period runs October 24 to October 31, 2026, and counties may add optional days.
• Election night and the count: polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time on November 3, 2026, and a voted mail ballot must reach the Supervisor of Elections by 7 p.m. that day. County official returns are due by noon on November 16, and the Elections Canvassing Commission certifies the official returns by 8 a.m. on November 17, 2026.
When the Florida 13th District Market Resolves
The two venues settle the same question on different tests. Kalshi lists the race under its HOUSEFL13-26 contracts and resolves the Republican contract Yes if the House member sworn in for FL-13 for the term beginning in 2027 is a Republican, and the Democratic contract on the same test; it lists an expected settlement of January 4, 2027 and allows accelerated determination once a consensus of media organizations projects the winner. Polymarket resolves on the party of the candidate who wins the seat in the November 3, 2026 election as shown by a consensus of credible reporting, falling back on official results reported by the Federal Election Commission if the outcome is ambiguous. Party is the ballot-listed affiliation, and a winner with neither major-party label, which would include D'Arrigo, counts with the party he most recently said he would caucus with.
Related Florida Markets
Voters in the 13th also choose a governor and a senator on the same ballot: the Florida governor odds and the Florida Senate odds carry those races. Among Florida's other House races, the Florida 14th District odds follow a Democratic incumbent defending a seat the new map made more Republican, and the Florida 16th District odds follow an open seat with a similar partisan lean. The Florida elections page collects every race the state's markets price.
