Florida Weather Prediction Markets & Temperature Odds
Florida weather prediction markets put odds on Miami's thermometer and rain gauge: the day's high, the night's low and the month's rainfall. Every contract names the weather record that settles it.
Miami
86 open contracts · 3 observation daysCity board →- ≤73°<1%+99900POLY
- 74–75°<1%+99900POLY
- 76–77°<1%+99900POLY
- 78–79°<1%+99900POLY
- ≤79°1%+9900KAL
- 80–81°4%+2400POLY
- 82–83°56%-127POLY
- 84–85°55%-122KAL
- 86–87°11%+809KAL
- 88–89°<1%+49900POLY
- ≥88°2%+4900KAL
- 90–91°<1%+99900POLY
- ≥92°<1%+99900POLY
- ≤67°<1%+99900POLY
- ≤68°2%+4900KAL
- 68–69°1%+9900POLY
- 69–70°3%+3233KAL
- 70–71°5%+1900POLY
- 71–72°49%+104KAL
- 72–73°14%+614POLY
- 73–74°73%-270KAL
- 74–75°87%-669POLY
- 75–76°1%+9900KAL
- 76–77°<1%+99900POLY
- ≥77°1%+9900KAL
- 78–79°<1%+99900POLY
- 80–81°<1%+99900POLY
- 82–83°<1%+99900POLY
- 84–85°<1%+99900POLY
- ≥86°<1%+99900POLY
- ≤73°<1%+99900
- 74–75°<1%+99900
- 76–77°<1%+99900
- 78–79°1%+19900
- 80–81°1%+19900
- 82–83°8%+1150
- 84–85°58%-138
- 86–87°32%+212
- 88–89°2%+4900
- 90–91°1%+19900
- ≥92°1%+19900
- ≤67°—
- 68–69°—
- 70–71°—
- 72–73°—
- 74–75°—
- 76–77°61%-156
- 78–79°21%+376
- 80–81°—
- 82–83°2%+4900
- 84–85°1%+12400
- ≥86°1%+19900
Top Florida Weather Markets
Florida's weather contracts trade on Miami, and they ask three kinds of question. Two are daily: how high the temperature climbs and how low it falls. Kalshi and Polymarket both list Miami's daily high and low as ladders, runs of two-degree bands with an open band at either end, so one venue's row covers every reading the day can produce and exactly one of its bands pays. The third is monthly. Kalshi's Miami rain ladder asks whether the month's rainfall will finish above a set of thresholds, each its own yes-or-no contract. The Miami weather board carries every open row, the record each one settles on and the settlement clock.
What Moves Florida Weather Markets
Ahead of an observation day, forecasts do the moving. Each new forecast from the National Weather Service office in Miami can shift weight along a row toward warmer or cooler bands. Once the day is under way, observations take over: a high already on the record cannot be undone, so the bands below it lose their value and the row narrows by the hour.
Rain moves on a running total. Miami's daily climate report prints the month's rainfall to date, and once that total clears a threshold, the contract on that threshold is decided with days still left in the month. The season sets where a row starts: on October 16, 2026 the report's 1991 to 2020 normals for the date were a high of 86°F and a low of 75°F.
Why Florida Weather Prediction Markets
A forecast offers one number. A ladder prices every band at once, so a row shows the whole spread traders expect, and the band with the highest price is the one the market favors. That is a different reading from a forecast, and the two can disagree.
Settlement is where Miami needs care, because it depends on the venue. Kalshi's temperature contracts read the maximum or minimum recorded in CLIMIA, the National Weather Service's daily Miami climate report, as The Weather Company reports it. Polymarket's read the highest or lowest hourly reading NOAA posts for its Miami International Airport station, KMIA. Two records can print two figures for the same afternoon, so each band's figure is one venue's price on its own terms, never an average of the two.
Questions readers ask
How do weather prediction markets work in Florida?
An exchange lists one contract for each band of a reading, such as a Miami daily high of 88°F to 89°F, and the band that holds the official figure pays in full while the others pay nothing. Kalshi and Polymarket both list Miami's daily high and low this way.
Which Florida cities have weather prediction markets?
Miami is the Florida city with a weather board, carrying daily high and low temperature ladders and a monthly rainfall ladder. Another Florida city would join it once an exchange lists contracts on it, which is the exchange's call.
How do Florida weather markets settle?
On a named record, never a forecast. Kalshi's Miami contracts read the National Weather Service's Miami climate report, CLIMIA, through The Weather Company, while Polymarket's Miami temperature events read NOAA's hourly observations at Miami International Airport, station KMIA.
Where can I trade Florida weather markets?
On October 16, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket both quoted Miami's daily high and low temperature bands, and Kalshi alone listed the monthly rainfall ladder, series KXRAINMIAM. No cell on this site links out to either venue.
Are weather prediction markets legal in Florida?
Florida's legal status page answers from the record: what the Florida Gaming Control Commission, state officials and the courts have filed or ordered about prediction-market exchanges, dated item by item. It draws no conclusion the record does not draw.