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Miami Weather Prediction Markets & Temperature Odds

Miami's temperature market, band by band: the odds on each day's high and low and on the month's rainfall. Each venue settles on its own record, so read the station before the number.

86open contracts
3observation days
Last Updated: Oct 18, 2026, 11:15 AM EDTReal Time Odds on Prediction Genius

The board

8 ladders · Today · Tomorrow · Tuesday, Oct 20 · This month · November 2026
Today
Daily high °FFavourite 82–83° at 56%-127KAL Kalshi · POLY Polymarket
  1. ≤73°<1%+99900POLY
  2. 74–75°<1%+99900POLY
  3. 76–77°<1%+99900POLY
  4. 78–79°<1%+99900POLY
  5. ≤79°1%+9900KAL
  6. 80–81°4%+2400POLY
  7. 82–83°56%-127POLY
  8. 84–85°55%-122KAL
  9. 86–87°11%+809KAL
  10. 88–89°<1%+49900POLY
  11. ≥88°2%+4900KAL
  12. 90–91°<1%+99900POLY
  13. ≥92°<1%+99900POLY
Daily low °FFavourite 74–75° at 87%-669KAL Kalshi · POLY Polymarket
  1. ≤67°<1%+99900POLY
  2. ≤68°2%+4900KAL
  3. 68–69°1%+9900POLY
  4. 69–70°3%+3233KAL
  5. 70–71°5%+1900POLY
  6. 71–72°49%+104KAL
  7. 72–73°14%+614POLY
  8. 73–74°73%-270KAL
  9. 74–75°87%-669POLY
  10. 75–76°1%+9900KAL
  11. 76–77°<1%+99900POLY
  12. ≥77°1%+9900KAL
  13. 78–79°<1%+99900POLY
  14. 80–81°<1%+99900POLY
  15. 82–83°<1%+99900POLY
  16. 84–85°<1%+99900POLY
  17. ≥86°<1%+99900POLY
Tomorrow
Daily high °FFavourite 84–85° at 58%-138Polymarket
  1. ≤73°<1%+99900
  2. 74–75°<1%+99900
  3. 76–77°<1%+99900
  4. 78–79°1%+19900
  5. 80–81°1%+19900
  6. 82–83°8%+1150
  7. 84–85°58%-138
  8. 86–87°32%+212
  9. 88–89°2%+4900
  10. 90–91°1%+19900
  11. ≥92°1%+19900
Daily low °FFavourite 76–77° at 61%-156Polymarket
  1. ≤67°—
  2. 68–69°—
  3. 70–71°—
  4. 72–73°—
  5. 74–75°—
  6. 76–77°61%-156
  7. 78–79°21%+376
  8. 80–81°—
  9. 82–83°2%+4900
  10. 84–85°1%+12400
  11. ≥86°1%+19900
Daily high °FFavourite 84–85° at 59%-144Polymarket
  1. ≤73°1%+9900
  2. 74–75°1%+9900
  3. 76–77°1%+9900
  4. 78–79°1%+9900
  5. 80–81°4%+2400
  6. 82–83°17%+488
  7. 84–85°59%-144
  8. 86–87°20%+400
  9. 88–89°3%+3233
  10. 90–91°1%+9900
  11. ≥92°1%+9900
Daily low °FNo band is priced yetPolymarket
  1. ≤65°—
  2. 66–67°—
  3. 68–69°—
  4. 70–71°—
  5. 72–73°—
  6. 74–75°—
  7. 76–77°—
  8. 78–79°—
  9. 80–81°—
  10. 82–83°—
  11. ≥84°—
This month
Rainfall inchesFavourite over 3 in at 98%-4900Kalshi
  1. >3 in98%-4900
  2. >4 in82%-456
  3. >5 in52%-108
  4. >6 in23%+335
  5. >7 in4%+2400
Rainfall inchesFavourite over 1 in at 76%-317Kalshi
  1. >1 in76%-317
  2. >2 in70%-233
  3. >3 in75%-300
  4. >4 in61%-156
  5. >5 in47%+113
  6. >6 in21%+376
  7. >7 in—

Which record settles a Miami contract

Miami's board carries two venues, and they do not read the same record. Kalshi lists the daily high and low as its KXHIGHMIA and KXLOWTMIA series, and its rules settle on the maximum or minimum temperature "recorded at Miami (CLIMIA)" as The Weather Company reports it. CLIMIA is the daily climate report the National Weather Service office in Miami issues for the city; its October 16, 2026 edition, issued at 4:24 p.m. Eastern, carried the day's maximum and minimum, the month's rainfall to date and the 1991 to 2020 normals.

Polymarket's Miami high and low events settle elsewhere: on the highest or lowest reading in the "Temp" column of NOAA's hourly data for the Miami International Airport station, KMIA, counted in whole degrees Fahrenheit. A daily climate summary and an hourly table are different records and can print different figures for the same day. A phone app, a backyard thermometer or a rooftop sensor downtown counts for neither venue, and Kalshi's own rules warn that preliminary readings can differ from the final value through rounding and unit conversion.

How the Miami ladders are built

Each observation day carries a high row and a low row, and both venues build them from two-degree bands with an open band at each end. They cut the bands differently. For October 17, 2026, Kalshi's high ladder ran in six bands from below 84°F to above 91°F, while Polymarket's ran in eleven from 77°F or below to 96°F or higher; on the low side Kalshi's middle bands started on odd numbers (71° to 72°, 73° to 74°) and Polymarket's on even ones (70° to 71°, 72° to 73°). Within one venue every reading lands in exactly one band, so that venue's prices read as one spread of chances. Across venues the bands overlap, which is why the board names a single book on a row only when every band in it comes from that book.

The two venues also list on different clocks. Kalshi opened its October 17, 2026 ladders at 10 a.m. Eastern on October 16, the day before, while Polymarket created its October 17 events early on October 15, and on the evening of October 16 Polymarket alone quoted October 18.

When a Miami contract settles

Kalshi's temperature terms rank their sources, The Weather Company first and the National Weather Service second, and count only the first official report not marked preliminary, at its full precision; a revision after expiration is ignored. Trading on the October 17, 2026 contracts is scheduled to run until 1 a.m. Eastern on October 18. If no figure exists by the expiration date, every band settles at the last fair price the exchange determines, a rule written into the terms rather than decided afterward.

Polymarket's events resolve once NOAA's table shows the first reading of the following day, or by 11:59 p.m. Eastern on the day after the observation date, whichever comes first. If NOAA has nothing by then, Weather Underground's daily observations stand in, and with no data at all the event resolves to its lowest band.

Miami's monthly rain ladder

Rainfall trades as a ladder of thresholds rather than bands. On October 16, 2026 only Kalshi listed one for Miami, the KXRAINMIAM series, with a contract for each threshold of more than so many inches in the month. Each settles on the monthly total in the first National Weather Service daily climate report for Miami that covers every day of the month, and trading stops at 11:59 p.m. Eastern on the month's last day. The report prints the running total daily, so a threshold the month has already passed is decided early: on October 16, 2026, with 2.29 inches on the record for October, the open October contracts started at more than 3 inches.

The Florida weather hub gathers Miami's rows with any Florida city an exchange lists later, and the legal status page holds the record on the venues that quote them.

Questions readers ask

Which weather station settles a Miami temperature market?

Each venue names its own record. Kalshi's KXHIGHMIA and KXLOWTMIA contracts settle on the National Weather Service's Miami climate report, CLIMIA, as The Weather Company reports it, while Polymarket's Miami events settle on NOAA's hourly readings at Miami International Airport, station KMIA.

When does a Miami daily temperature contract settle?

Kalshi settles no later than the day after expiration, on the first report not marked preliminary; its October 17, 2026 contracts are set to stop trading at 1 a.m. Eastern on October 18. Polymarket resolves once NOAA posts the next day's first reading, or by 11:59 p.m. Eastern the day after the observation date.

Is there a Miami rain market?

Yes. Kalshi's KXRAINMIAM series lists one contract per monthly rainfall threshold for Miami, settled on the month's total in the first National Weather Service daily climate report that covers the whole month. On October 16, 2026 it was the only rain ladder on the Miami board.

Why can Kalshi and Polymarket settle the same Miami day differently?

Because they read different records. Kalshi takes the day's maximum or minimum from the CLIMIA climate report through The Weather Company, and Polymarket takes the highest or lowest hourly reading at KMIA in whole degrees, so the two figures for October 17, 2026 or any other day can differ.