Florida prediction market guides take one mechanic at a time, from the AAA gas ladder to a Miami temperature band, and follow it to the record that settles it. Standing is a separate question.
How Miami temperature contracts settle depends on the venue: one reads the National Weather Service's daily climate report, the other the airport's routine hourly observations. Same day, two records.
· Read guide →How NFC Championship odds work: each club in the conference holds its own contract, and only the winner of the title game is paid. Tampa Bay's contract is Florida's one entry in that field.
· Read guide →How the Florida gas price contract settles comes down to one number: AAA's statewide average for a gallon of regular on the named date. Every rung on the ladder is judged against it.
· Read guide →No Florida Gaming Control Commission order or Florida court ruling naming a prediction-market venue was located. This page sets out the dated public record on the question, federal guidance included, and draws no conclusion.
Status as of November 6, 2026 · · See the record →Each guide here takes one mechanic a Florida reader meets on a contract page and follows it from the price to the document that settles it. The gas guide works through the daily ladder on AAA's statewide average for a gallon of regular, where every rung below the posted figure pays at once. The championship guide reads the NFC field through the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the conference's one Florida club, and shows why sixteen prices describe a single prize. The weather guide explains why a Miami temperature band can turn on which record a venue reads: the National Weather Service's daily climate report for the city, or the hourly observations at Miami International Airport. What a prediction market is, in general, is explained elsewhere; these pages start from a Florida contract. Guides are listed by title, and the contracts behind them are in the markets catalogue.
A guide is added when a Florida mechanic needs more room than a paragraph on its market page, so this index grows slowly. Three things send a guide back for review. The first is a rule change, because an exchange can rewrite the record a contract reads, as Polymarket has done for Miami's daily temperature by moving to the airport's routine weather reports in tenths of a degree Celsius. The second is the calendar: the NFL postseason, with Kalshi's NFC Championship contracts expected to expire on February 8, 2027, and AAA's daily figure, which settles a fresh gas ladder every morning. The third is the state record on the exchanges themselves, which is kept with its dates on the legal status page rather than summarized in a how-to.
A price on a binary contract is the cost of a Yes that pays $1 if a stated outcome happens, read as an implied probability; it is not a forecast from this site and not a tip. The number only means something next to the sentence it settles on, and that sentence differs by contract and sometimes by venue. Florida's contracts end on a handful of document types: a published statistic such as AAA's daily average, a league's official result, and a measured reading at a named weather station. Two exchanges listing the same Florida question can print different prices because they wrote different settlement sentences, and the guides set those sentences side by side rather than recommend either venue. None of this is legal or financial advice.
On a named record written into each contract's rules. The Florida gas ladder settles on AAA's statewide average for regular, the NFC Championship board on the NFL's official result, and a Miami temperature band on the National Weather Service's climate report or the airport's routine observations, depending on the venue.
It is the cost of a Yes that pays $1 if one stated outcome happens, read as the market's implied probability of that outcome. It is neither a forecast from Florida Predictions nor a recommendation to trade.
Because they settle on different sentences. For a Miami daily high, Kalshi reads the National Weather Service's CLIMIA climate report and Polymarket reads routine METAR reports from Miami International Airport, and on the NFC Championship only Polymarket carries an Other line for a season with no champion.
Kalshi lists the daily Florida gas ladder, and Kalshi and Polymarket both list the NFC Championship board and Miami's daily high and low temperature contracts. The guides name the venue behind each contract and take no view on which anyone should use.
The legal status page on Florida Predictions sets out what Florida regulators, prosecutors and courts have filed or ordered about each exchange, every entry dated, and draws no conclusion the record does not draw. These guides explain mechanics only and are not legal or financial advice.