Florida Politician Prediction Markets & 2026 Odds
Florida politicians in prediction markets, gathered by person: the officeholders and 2026 nominees whose races the state's contracts price, each matched to the office or ballot line an official source names.
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Askar is funding his FL-22 race himself while Dandiya banks donors' money, and the market calls it even
Casey Askar ended September with 80,039 dollars on hand to Pia Dandiya's 1.1 million dollars, yet Polymarket had her party at only 54% on October 16, 2026, because a self-funding candidate can refill his account overnight.
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The Donalds-Jolly polls run from a tie to an 11-point lead, and the market has taken the wide end
Stetson's October 13 poll put Byron Donalds ahead of David Jolly by 11 points while two other October surveys found a tie, and Kalshi had the Republican Party at 80% on October 16, 2026, which means the market is pricing the lead, not the tie.
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Nixon outraised Moody four to one over the summer, and the Senate market still treats the seat as Moody's
Angie Nixon's campaign reported 7.2 million dollars in summer contributions, about four times Moody's, yet Polymarket had the Republican Party at 91% on October 16, 2026, which means the market reads the money shift as too late to flip the seat.
What the Florida People Index Holds
No person page is up yet. A Floridian is added once a contract here prices a race they are on the ballot for, or names them outright, and two sources agree on the office they hold or the line they appear on: Wikidata with the office's own website or the U.S. Senate's roster for an officeholder, and the Division of Elections' candidate list for a nominee. The first in line are the nominees for the two statewide races, Byron Donalds and David Jolly for governor and Ashley Moody and Angie Nixon for the U.S. Senate. Until their pages exist, the races carry them: the governor market page, the Senate special election page, district pages such as the 9th District's, and the elections page.
What Changes the Florida People Index
Names come from ballots and offices, never from an exchange's label. Kalshi prints candidates' names beside governor contracts that in fact pay on a party, so a label alone proves nothing about who is running. The map matters too: under the districts drawn in 2026, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, elected in the 25th, qualified to run in the 20th, so a person's district is read from the candidate list, never from the seat they hold. Once a page exists, dated events change it: the November 3, 2026 vote, certification by the Elections Canvassing Commission on November 17, the start of new terms in January 2027, a resignation, an appointment, or a new contract that names the person. A national contract naming a Floridian would sit on that person's page and link out, never as a Florida market page.
Why Florida Politician Prediction Markets
Every Florida election contract on this site pays on a party. Kalshi settles on the party of the governor inaugurated or the member sworn in, and Polymarket treats a candidate as their party's nominee, so a person page carries the race, the office and the contract's terms rather than a price of its own. The market page carries the figure, at the lowest Yes price any exchange quotes, with the exchange named. For the person, that figure is a reading of the race, not a verdict on them. Nothing here grades a politician or favors a party, and a projection is never reported as a result: a result waits for the state's certified returns.
Questions readers ask
How do prediction markets on politicians work?
A contract on a politician's race asks whether their party wins it, for instance whether the Republican Party keeps Florida's U.S. Senate seat on November 3, 2026, and pays a fixed amount if it does. The price traders pay for that payout reads as a probability.
Which Florida politicians have prediction markets?
The major-party nominees in the races Florida contracts price: Byron Donalds (Republican) and David Jolly (Democrat) for governor, Ashley Moody (Republican) and Angie Nixon (Democrat) for the U.S. Senate, and the nominees in the House districts, per the Division of Elections. The contracts settle on the party, not the person.
Who is the governor of Florida?
Ron DeSantis, a Republican, has been Governor of Florida since January 8, 2019, per Wikidata and the Executive Office of the Governor. He is not a candidate on November 3, 2026, when Florida elects his successor.
Who are Florida's U.S. senators?
Rick Scott and Ashley Moody, both Republicans, per the U.S. Senate's list of senators updated October 8, 2026. Moody has held the Class III seat since January 21, 2025, per Wikidata, and is on the November 3, 2026 ballot in the special election for it.
Are prediction markets on politicians legal in Florida?
The site's legal status page reports what Florida law, the Florida Gaming Control Commission and the courts have said about the exchanges, each item dated, and stops there. This index lists people and offices only; nothing on Florida Predictions is legal advice.