Ashley Moody Prediction Markets & 2026 Florida Senate Odds

Ashley Moody and the Florida Senate market

The Florida Senate market priced the special election for the seat Moody already held, and its two venues framed the question differently. Kalshi's SENATEFLS-26 pair asks about a party: the Republican contract resolves Yes if a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a senator of Florida pursuant to the Class III special election held on November 3, 2026. Moody's name is only the label on that side. Polymarket asks who wins the election and lists her by name as the Republican nominee.

Neither is open any longer. Kalshi finalized its Republican contract Yes at 9:10 p.m. Eastern on November 3, 2026, using the early-settlement clause that follows a consensus projection by media organizations, and Polymarket resolved its market to Moody at 11:37 p.m. that night. The closing prices, and how the fall campaign moved them, sit on the Senate market page and in the story on the fundraising race.

Current office and record

Moody, a Republican, has held Florida's Class III Senate seat since January 21, 2025. Wikidata records her appointment to it by Governor Ron DeSantis, succeeding Marco Rubio, and the U.S. Senate's own list of senators, last updated October 8, 2026, names her for the Class III seat beside Rick Scott in Class I. Before the appointment she was Florida's attorney general from January 8, 2019 to January 21, 2025.

An appointment fills a seat only until voters choose, which is why the seat was on the 2026 ballot. Moody won the Republican primary on August 18, 2026 with 1,320,780 votes in the Division of Elections' official returns, against 228,010 for Chris Gleason, the runner-up.

What has moved the market

The primary settled who carried the Republican line, and Democrat Angie Nixon came out of the other primary as her opponent. Election night settled the rest. NBC News projected at 8:32 p.m. Eastern on November 3, 2026 that Moody had defeated Nixon, and WUSF reported that Nixon conceded at her election-night gathering in Jacksonville. Kalshi's contracts finalized less than an hour after the projection.

The unofficial results the Division of Elections showed at 12:26 p.m. Eastern on November 5, 2026 gave Moody 4,208,004 votes, Nixon 3,969,271 and Neil Gillespie, with no party affiliation, 94,538. That is a lead of 238,733 votes, more than twice the margin in the governor's race on the same ballot, a comparison the Senate result story works through.

What happens next

Nothing about the seat changes hands, because Moody already sits in it, but the count is unofficial until certification. The Division of Elections' 2026 timeline has counties filing unofficial returns by noon on November 7, county official returns by noon on November 16 and the Elections Canvassing Commission certifying by 8 a.m. on November 17, 2026. The win covers the last two years of the term Rubio won in 2022, NBC News reported, and the seat is on the ballot again in 2028 for a full term. The governor's race from the same night is on Byron Donalds's page, and other Floridians are in the people index.