Four Florida House Races Are Still Being Counted, and the Markets Already Price Each Leader as the Winner

Four of Florida's U.S. House races were still uncalled two days after the November 3, 2026 election, and the prediction markets have already priced the leader in each as the likely winner. The Division of Elections' unofficial results, read at 9:59 a.m. on November 5, 2026, show Democrat Darren Soto ahead in the 9th District by 1,477 votes, Republican Ryan Elijah ahead in the 7th by 1,701, Republican Mario Diaz-Balart ahead in the 26th by 1,772 and Republican Maria Elvira Salazar ahead in the 27th by 1,116, the one margin inside Florida's automatic recount line.

If those four leads hold, the Florida House results for 2026 give Republicans 20 of the state's 28 seats and Democrats 8, the same split as the delegation the Clerk of the House listed on November 3: 20 Republicans, 7 Democrats and a vacant 20th District. For Florida that is the headline of the night in the House: a redrawn congressional map has, on the unofficial count, left the delegation's party balance where it was, with the result in four districts still open.

The four races still being counted

The 9th District, in Central Florida, is the one where the pre-election favorite trails. Soto, the Democratic incumbent, had 143,174 votes, or 50.26%, to 141,697, or 49.74%, for Republican Dan Green. Florida Politics reported that the margin, 0.52 points, landed just outside the threshold for an automatic recount and that Soto declared victory, while Spectrum News 13 reported the race too close to call a day after the election and quoted Osceola County Supervisor of Elections Mary Jane Arrington saying her office may not know until late Friday or Saturday whether a recount is required.

The 7th District, made up of Seminole County and the southern part of Volusia County according to Central Florida Public Media, had Elijah at 161,189 votes, or 49.73%, to 159,488, or 49.2%, for Democrat Bale Dalton, with Libertarian Christopher Dennison at 1.07%. Elijah's lead is 0.52% of the votes cast, which means it sits just outside the recount line unless the remaining ballots narrow it.

In the 26th District, Diaz-Balart, the Republican incumbent, had 114,547 votes, or 49.87%, to 112,775, or 49.1%, for Democrat Nicole Locklin, a margin of 0.77%, which puts it outside the recount line. WSVN reported that officials said the 26th would not be recounted and that neither the 26th nor the 27th had been called as of Wednesday evening, November 4; Locklin told the station at least 1,800 votes in Broward County had not yet been counted.

The 27th, in Miami-Dade County, is the closest: Salazar's 1,116-vote lead over Democrat Eliott Rodriguez is 0.45% of the votes cast, and Miami-Dade Supervisor of Elections Alina Garcia said the margin falls within the 0.50% threshold for an automatic machine recount, which means the 27th is the one Florida House race now inside the recount line. The FL-27 recount story has the details.

What the markets are saying

The markets treat all four leads as safe, which is a sharper verdict than the count itself gives. As of the morning of November 5, 2026, Polymarket had the Democratic Party at 98% to win the 9th District, the board shown with this story, and had the Republican Party at 1% there. Polymarket had the Republican Party at 97% in the 7th and in the 26th, and Kalshi had it at 94% in the 27th, the lowest of the four because it is the only one headed for a recount.

That is a long way from where the same boards stood before the vote. In the 9th District the Democratic Party's best price went from 30% on Kalshi on October 23, 2026 to 98% on Polymarket on November 5, 2026. On October 23, Polymarket had the Republican Party at 68% in the 9th District and at 68% in the 7th, which means the market went into the final week treating the 9th as a likely Republican pickup under the new lines and has since swung almost all the way to Soto on a 1,477-vote lead. On November 2, 2026, Kalshi had the Republican Party at 86% in the 26th and Polymarket had it at 59% in the 27th.

None of the four boards has settled. Each venue lists the contract as open, which matches the fact that no news organization had called these races in the reports on file. A price of 97% or 98% on an uncalled race is the market's estimate that the remaining provisional and overseas ballots, and any recount, will not change the leader; it is not a result.

The seats that were called

Elsewhere the count produced clearer results. CBS News projected Democrat Pia Dandiya the winner in the newly drawn 22nd District, where she had 51.89% to 48.11% for Republican Casey Askar, and both venues have settled that board for the Democratic Party; the Askar and Dandiya story from October followed the money in what the market then priced as an even race. CBS News also projected Democrats Jared Moskowitz in the 25th, Debbie Wasserman Schultz in the 20th and Oliver Gilbert in the 24th, and Republican Carlos Gimenez in the 28th. Democrat Maxwell Frost was unopposed in the 10th District, according to the Division's candidate list, so his seat was not on the ballot.

In the 13th District, Republican Anna Paulina Luna led Democrat Leela Gray by 2,517 votes, 49.48% to 48.68%, a margin of 0.80%, and Kalshi and Polymarket both had the Republican Party at 99% on November 5, 2026, with the board still open, which means the market treats an uncalled lead of less than one point as settled in all but name.

What the 20-to-8 split means

A 20-to-8 delegation on the unofficial count is not a final number, and the range around it is narrow but real. The three Republican leads still uncalled, in the 7th, 26th and 27th, total 4,589 votes across three districts, and the one Democratic lead still uncalled, in the 9th, is 1,477. If every one of those leads held, the delegation would stay at 20 Republicans and 8 Democrats; if the Democratic candidates overtook all three Republican leads it would be 17 to 11, and if Dan Green overtook Soto it would be 21 to 7. The markets give little weight to any of those swings, which is why every uncalled board sits at 94% or higher for its leader.

Why the map did not move the count

Florida's 2026 districts were redrawn before this election, and the reporting on the closest races describes the map as a large part of the story. Florida Politics wrote that the remade 9th District covered counties Soto had never represented and an electorate in which more than 58% of voters backed Donald Trump in 2024. WSVN reported that analysts said the redraw of the 26th removed Collier County from the district and added part of southwest Broward County, bringing in Democratic-leaning neighborhoods. On the unofficial count, the map produced close races in both districts rather than the Republican gains its shape implied.

What happens next

• 5 p.m. on November 5, 2026: the deadline to cure a vote-by-mail ballot or provide proof for a provisional ballot.

• Noon on November 7: counties file first unofficial returns; any race at one-half of a percent or less gets a machine recount ordered.

• 3 p.m. on November 12: second unofficial returns in any race that was recounted; a margin of one-quarter of a percent or less then requires a manual recount.

• Noon on November 16 and 8 a.m. on November 17: county official returns, then certification by the Elections Canvassing Commission.

The district boards stay on the Florida 9th District odds, 7th District, 26th District and 27th District pages, and every race is on the elections page.