Florida Gas Price Predictions & Odds

How Florida Gas Price Markets Settle

Every Florida gas contract on this page turns on one number: AAA's average price for a gallon of regular gasoline across Florida on the date the contract names, the figure AAA posts on its Florida page at gasprices.aaa.com. Kalshi lists the daily contract as the KXAAAGASDFL series under its AAAGAS terms. Those terms name AAA as the source agency, read the figure as AAA has documented it at expiration, ignore any revision AAA makes afterward and, when AAA posts nothing for the date, fall back on the last day it did post.

The wording of a rung matters at the edge. Kalshi's rules for the October 17, 2026 contract pay Yes only when the Florida average is strictly greater than the rung's price, so an average that lands exactly on a rung settles that rung No. The single statewide figure also sits over a wide spread. AAA's Florida page prints mid-grade, premium and diesel averages, county price bands and metro averages for Jacksonville, Orlando, Miami, Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater and other markets, and a station in any of them can sit well above or below the one number the contract reads.

How to Read the Florida Gas Price Board

The ladder at the top of the page belongs to the next date Kalshi has listed. Each rung is a price, and beside it is the chance the market gives that AAA's Florida average for that date finishes above it, with the venue quoting that chance named. Rungs climb half a cent at a time, so the chances shrink as the prices rise: close to certain at the bottom of the ladder, long shots at the top.

The market line marks where the ladder crosses an even chance, the nearest thing the board has to one expected figure. The last settled day sits beside it and shows where AAA's Florida figure actually came in on the newest date that has resolved; the gap between the two is the direction the market is pricing. Trading on a date's contract stops at 11:59 p.m. Eastern the night before that date. On October 16, 2026, the ladder for October 17 opened at 1:32 p.m. Eastern.

What Moves Florida Gas Prices

Taxes are the slow part of the Florida price, and they move once a year. On January 1, 2026 the Department of Revenue raised the state tax on motor fuel from $0.215 to $0.220 a gallon and the State Comprehensive Enhanced Transportation System tax from $0.097 to $0.099, because Florida law ties both to the national Consumer Price Index and adjusts them each January (Tax Information Publication 25B05-05, issued November 19, 2025). Counties add their own ninth-cent and local option taxes, so the department's 2026 rate chart puts the combined state, county and inspection-fee total between $0.38025 and $0.44025 a gallon depending on the county, with Miami-Dade at $0.42025. Baker and Seminole counties each raised their additional local option tax from zero for 2026. The next scheduled adjustment is January 1, 2027.

Supply ties Florida to the rest of the Southeast. The U.S. Energy Information Administration places Florida in the Lower Atlantic subdistrict of the East Coast petroleum district, which it shares with Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia and West Virginia. EIA counts crude oil as about half of the retail price of gasoline, the input that moves every state at once, and notes that retail prices tend to run higher the farther gasoline travels from refineries, ports and terminals, and that refinery shutdowns of the kind hurricanes cause can push prices up. In Florida that risk keeps a calendar: the National Hurricane Center's Atlantic season runs from June 1 to November 30.

Summer rules are the third input. EPA limits the volatility of gasoline sold at retail to 9.0 pounds per square inch from June 1 to September 15. Six Florida counties, Broward, Dade, Duval, Hillsborough, Palm Beach and Pinellas, once carried a stricter 7.8 psi limit, which EPA relaxed to the federal standard effective May 30, 2014. EIA adds that gasoline demand usually rises in summer.

Florida Gas Price History

The chart under the board plots AAA's settled Florida average for every date whose daily contract has resolved. It begins with the contract for August 26, 2026, the first date in Kalshi's daily Florida series, and the full view keeps every settled date since. The seven-day and thirty-day views slide forward a day at a time and always end on the newest settled figure.

Year-Long Florida Gas Price Markets

Kalshi also lists two Florida contracts that run to December 31, 2026, both under its AAAGASMINMAX terms. The year-high series, KXAAAGASMAXFL, asks whether AAA's daily Florida average for regular will rise strictly above a stated price on any date from its listing through December 31; the year-low series, KXAAAGASMINFL, asks whether it will fall strictly below one. A single day's reading decides a rung, so a rung that is reached does not wait for December: trading on it ends at the first scheduled expiration time after AAA posts the qualifying figure. Rungs never reached trade until 9:55 a.m. Eastern on December 31, 2026. What the record says about trading any of these contracts from Florida is on the legal status page.