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Florida NCAA Tournament Odds 2027

Q: What are the Florida NCAA Tournament odds for 2027?

As of October 18, 2026, Kalshi had Florida at 14% to win the 2027 national championship, second among the 73 programs on its board, Miami at 2% and Florida State at 0.4%. Duke led at 15%.

Q: When does the Florida NCAA Tournament market resolve?

After the national championship game on April 5, 2027, at Ford Field in Detroit. Kalshi lists an expected expiration of April 13, 2027 for the Florida, Miami (FL) and Florida St. contracts.

Q: Where is the Florida NCAA Tournament market traded?

Only on Kalshi, which lists Florida, Miami (FL) and Florida St. among the 73 programs on its Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion event. No second exchange prices any of the three contracts.

Q: Who is the favorite to win the 2027 NCAA Tournament?

Duke, at 15% on Kalshi on October 18, 2026, one point ahead of Florida at 14%. Duke plays Florida at the O'Connell Center in Gainesville on December 1, 2026.

Q: What should I watch before the Florida NCAA Tournament market resolves?

Florida against Miami on November 2 and at Florida State on November 10, Duke at Florida on December 1, 2026, then the SEC and ACC seasons and where all three programs are seeded in the first 76-team field in March 2027.

Duke15%+567KALKalshi quotes Yes 15%+567

Florida14%+614KALKalshi quotes Yes 14%+614

Kalshi 11M contractsVolume

73Outcomes

KalshiPriced on 1 book

Apr 13, 2027Resolves by · 177 days

Last Updated: Oct 18, 2026, 10:42 AM EDTReal Time Odds on Prediction Genius

Price historyTop 5 of 73 · Sep 21, 2026–Oct 18, 2026

Duke15%+567
Florida14%+614
UConn7%+1329
Illinois6%+1567
Michigan St.4%+2400

Top 5 over 26 days: Duke 12%+733 on Sep 21, 2026, 15%+567 on Oct 18, 2026.

Outcome field73 outcomes · 1 platform

#	Outcome	Move	Kalshi	Best price
1	DukeKAL 15%+567	—	15%+567	15%+567KAL
2	FloridaKAL 14%+614	—	14%+614	14%+614KAL
3	UConnKAL 7%+1329	—	7%+1329	7%+1329KAL
4	IllinoisKAL 6%+1567	—	6%+1567	6%+1567KAL
5	Michigan St.KAL 4%+2400	—	4%+2400	4%+2400KAL
6	Texas TechKAL 4%+2400	up 1 points over 24h	4%+2400	4%+2400KAL
7	ArkansasKAL 4%+2400	—	4%+2400	4%+2400KAL
8	TexasKAL 4%+2400	—	4%+2400	4%+2400KAL
9	TennesseeKAL 3%+3233	—	3%+3233	3%+3233KAL
10	ArizonaKAL 3%+3233	down 1 points over 24h	3%+3233	3%+3233KAL
11	St. John'sKAL 3%+3233	—	3%+3233	3%+3233KAL
12	LouisvilleKAL 3%+3233	—	3%+3233	3%+3233KAL
13	HoustonKAL 3%+3233	—	3%+3233	3%+3233KAL
14	KansasKAL 2%+4900	—	2%+4900	2%+4900KAL
15	North CarolinaKAL 2%+4900	—	2%+4900	2%+4900KAL
16	Miami (FL)KAL 2%+4900	—	2%+4900	2%+4900KAL
17	GonzagaKAL 2%+4900	—	2%+4900	2%+4900KAL
18	AlabamaKAL 2%+4900	—	2%+4900	2%+4900KAL
19	MichiganKAL 2%+4900	—	2%+4900	2%+4900KAL
20	VirginiaKAL 2%+4900	—	2%+4900	2%+4900KAL
21	VanderbiltKAL 1%+9900	—	1%+9900	1%+9900KAL
22	KentuckyKAL 1%+9900	—	1%+9900	1%+9900KAL
23	LSUKAL 1%+9900	—	1%+9900	1%+9900KAL
24	UCLAKAL 1%+9900	—	1%+9900	1%+9900KAL
25	USCKAL 1%+9900	—	1%+9900	1%+9900KAL
26	Iowa St.KAL 1%+9900	—	1%+9900	1%+9900KAL
27	MissouriKAL 1%+9900	—	1%+9900	1%+9900KAL
28	VillanovaKAL 1%+11011	—	1%+11011	1%+11011KAL
29	Texas A&MKAL 1%+12400	—	1%+12400	1%+12400KAL
30	IowaKAL 1%+14186	—	1%+14186	1%+14186KAL
31	IndianaKAL 1%+16567	—	1%+16567	1%+16567KAL
32	BYUKAL 1%+16567	—	1%+16567	1%+16567KAL
33	PurdueKAL 1%+16567	—	1%+16567	1%+16567KAL
34	NebraskaKAL 1%+16567	—	1%+16567	1%+16567KAL
35	AuburnKAL 1%+19900	—	1%+19900	1%+19900KAL
36	BaylorKAL 1%+19900	—	1%+19900	1%+19900KAL
37	Florida St.KAL <1%+24900	—	<1%+24900	<1%+24900KAL
38	ProvidenceKAL <1%+24900	—	<1%+24900	<1%+24900KAL
39	Ohio St.KAL <1%+24900	—	<1%+24900	<1%+24900KAL
40	NC St.KAL <1%+24900	—	<1%+24900	<1%+24900KAL
41	CincinnatiKAL <1%+33233	—	<1%+33233	<1%+33233KAL
42	WisconsinKAL <1%+33233	—	<1%+33233	<1%+33233KAL
43	MarquetteKAL <1%+33233	—	<1%+33233	<1%+33233KAL
44	ClemsonKAL <1%+33233	—	<1%+33233	<1%+33233KAL
45	OklahomaKAL <1%+33233	—	<1%+33233	<1%+33233KAL
46	VCUKAL <1%+33233	—	<1%+33233	<1%+33233KAL
47	SyracuseKAL <1%+33233	—	<1%+33233	<1%+33233KAL
48	XavierKAL <1%+49900	—	<1%+49900	<1%+49900KAL
49	Saint Mary'sKAL <1%+49900	—	<1%+49900	<1%+49900KAL
50	StanfordKAL <1%+49900	—	<1%+49900	<1%+49900KAL
51	SMUKAL <1%+49900	—	<1%+49900	<1%+49900KAL
52	Virginia TechKAL <1%+49900	—	<1%+49900	<1%+49900KAL
53	CreightonKAL <1%+49900	—	<1%+49900	<1%+49900KAL
54	Ole MissKAL <1%+49900	—	<1%+49900	<1%+49900KAL
55	OregonKAL <1%+49900	—	<1%+49900	<1%+49900KAL
56	San Diego St.KAL <1%+49900	—	<1%+49900	<1%+49900KAL
57	Boston CollegeKAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
58	Wake ForestKAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
59	Mississippi St.KAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
60	Notre DameKAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
61	GeorgetownKAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
62	PittsburghKAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
63	Seton HallKAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
64	San FranciscoKAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
65	ButlerKAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
66	MemphisKAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
67	RichmondKAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
68	St. BonaventureKAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
69	DaytonKAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
70	Loyola ChicagoKAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
71	Colorado St.KAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
72	NevadaKAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL
73	Boise St.KAL <1%+99900	—	<1%+99900	<1%+99900KAL

How it settlesSettled by Kalshi

Kalshi's Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion event (KXMARMAD-27) pays Yes on the Florida contract (KXMARMAD-27-FLA) if Florida is the 2026-27 Division 1 Men's College Basketball National Champion, Yes on the Miami (FL) contract (KXMARMAD-27-MIA) if Miami is, and Yes on the Florida St. contract (KXMARMAD-27-FSU) if Florida State is; each settles No otherwise. The event's 73 contracts are mutually exclusive. The 2027 NCAA tournament runs from March 16 to April 5, 2027, with the championship game scheduled at Ford Field in Detroit on April 5, 2027, and Kalshi lists an expected expiration of April 13, 2027. Kalshi is the only venue pricing these contracts.

Market type

Multi Outcome

Priced on

Kalshi

What moves it

Kalshi had Florida at 14%, Miami at 2% and Florida State at 0.4% to win the 2027 title on October 18, 2026, with Duke first at 15%
Thomas Haugh, Alex Condon, Boogie Fland and Rueben Chinyelu, four of Florida's five leading scorers in 2025-26, are on the 2026-27 roster
Florida was a No. 1 seed in 2026 and lost 73-72 to Iowa in the second round in Tampa on March 22, 2026
Miami went 26-9 and finished third in the ACC in 2025-26, and returns Malik Reneau and Shelton Henderson but not Tre Donaldson
Florida plays Miami in Tampa on November 2 and at Florida State on November 10, then hosts Duke in Gainesville on December 1, 2026
Florida State returns none of its five leading scorers, and the 2027 field expands to 76 teams with the final on April 5, 2027 in Detroit

Analysis · Florida Predictions staff · Oct 18, 2026

The Gators' Returning Core Leads Florida's Three Programs on the 2027 Title Board

The Florida NCAA Tournament odds for 2027 rest on what the Gators kept: four of the five players who led them in scoring last season are on the 2026-27 roster, and the market treats that continuity as enough to price Florida with Duke at the top of the field before a game has been played. Miami and Florida State, the state's other two programs on the board, sit well behind. The Gators play their home games at the Stephen C. O'Connell Center in Gainesville, Florida, Miami plays at the Watsco Center in Coral Gables, Florida, and Florida State plays at the Tucker Center in Tallahassee, Florida. Kalshi is the only exchange pricing this contract, and the live board above carries every program's current price.

What the Florida NCAA Tournament Price Is Saying

On October 18, 2026, Kalshi had Florida at 14% to win the 2027 national championship, second among the 73 programs on its board and a single point behind Duke at 15%. UConn was third at 7% and Illinois fourth at 6%. Miami was at 2% on the same date, with 13 programs priced above the Hurricanes, and Florida State was at 0.4%, with 36 programs priced above the Seminoles. What the price is saying is that the market sees two programs at the top and then a gap: Florida sits twice as high as the third-ranked team, a separation that rests on a roster the market already knows.

Kalshi's 14% for Florida on October 18, 2026 still means roughly one chance in seven. A title takes six straight wins in March and April, or seven from the new Opening Round, so the price is a ranking against 72 other programs, not a forecast that Florida wins.

The other two prices read differently. Miami's 2% on October 18, 2026 puts the Hurricanes level with Kansas, North Carolina, Gonzaga, Alabama, Michigan and Virginia, a tier the market treats as tournament teams rather than title favorites. Florida State's 0.4% is the price of a program the market expects to be playing for a place in the field rather than a seed near the top of it, and it puts the Seminoles alongside Providence, Ohio State and NC State on Kalshi's board.

The Gators: From a National Title to a Second-Round Exit

The Gators won the 2025 national championship, beating Houston 65-63 at the Alamodome in San Antonio on April 7, 2025.

In 2025-26 Florida finished 27-8 overall and 16-2 in the SEC, first in the conference on ESPN's final standings. Vanderbilt beat the Gators 91-74 in the SEC Tournament semifinal in Nashville on March 14, 2026. As the No. 1 seed in the South Region, Florida beat Prairie View A&M 114-55 in Tampa on March 20, then lost 73-72 to ninth-seeded Iowa in the same arena on March 22.

The 2027 price leans on the roster that comes back. Thomas Haugh led Florida at 17.1 points per game last season, Alex Condon added 15.0 points and 7.7 rebounds, Boogie Fland scored 11.6 points a game, and Rueben Chinyelu averaged 11.2 points and 11.5 rebounds. All four are on ESPN's 2026-27 roster under head coach Todd Golden. The leading scorer missing from that list is Xaivian Lee, who scored 11.5 points a game and led the team with 4.2 assists. Chinyelu, Condon and Haugh were also the team's three leading rebounders, and the market treats that returning front line as the reason Florida is priced with Duke rather than with the programs a tier below.

Miami: Third in the ACC, With Its Leading Scorer Back

Miami finished 2025-26 at 26-9 overall and 13-5 in the ACC, third in the conference on ESPN's final standings behind Duke and Virginia, and 8-2 on the road. The Hurricanes beat Louisville 78-73 in the ACC Tournament quarterfinal at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte on March 12, 2026, then lost 84-62 to Virginia in the semifinal the next day. As the No. 7 seed in the West Region, Miami beat No. 10 Missouri 80-66 at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis on March 20, then lost 79-69 to No. 2 Purdue in the same arena on March 22.

In the state, Florida beat Miami 82-68 in Jacksonville on November 16, 2025, and the Hurricanes split with Florida State, losing 65-63 at home on January 20, 2026 and winning 83-73 in Tallahassee on February 24.

The 2027 price is a price on a team that kept its leading scorer and lost its leading passer. Malik Reneau led Miami at 18.8 points and 6.6 rebounds a game, Shelton Henderson added 13.7 points and Dante Allen 6.4, and all three are on ESPN's 2026-27 roster, which lists Jai Lucas as head coach. Tre Donaldson, who scored 16.5 points and led the team with 5.8 assists, is not, and neither are Tru Washington, at 12.1 points, or Ernest Udeh Jr., the leading rebounder at 9.3 a game. Miami's 2% on Kalshi on October 18, 2026 sits between the other two Florida programs for that reason: the market credits Reneau and Henderson and waits to see who runs the offense.

Florida State: A Rebuilt Roster Behind a Long Price

Florida State finished 2025-26 at 18-15 overall and 10-8 in the ACC. The Seminoles started conference play 1-6, then won nine of their last 11 league games, beat California in the ACC Tournament and lost 80-79 to Duke in the quarterfinal at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte on March 12, 2026. ESPN's schedule lists no postseason game after it.

Almost none of that production is back. Robert McCray V led the team at 16.3 points and 6.1 assists, and none of the five leading scorers is on ESPN's 2026-27 roster, which lists Luke Loucks as head coach. The Seminoles' 0.4% on Kalshi on October 18, 2026 is a price on an unknown roster as much as on last season's record.

The expanded field matters more here than at the top of the board: the 2027 tournament grows from 68 to 76 teams, with 44 at-large bids instead of 36, which changes the Seminoles' odds of playing in the tournament far more than their odds of winning it.

The Florida NCAA Tournament Schedule Before Conference Play

The three programs meet early. Florida plays Miami at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa on November 2, 2026, at 6 p.m. Eastern, and the Gators play at Florida State on November 10 at 6 p.m. Eastern at the Tucker Center. Miami and Florida State meet in ACC play on February 6 and March 6, 2027.

The game most likely to move Florida's price comes three weeks after the openers. Duke, the one program Kalshi priced above Florida on October 18, 2026, visits the O'Connell Center on December 1 at 9:30 p.m. Eastern in the ACC/SEC Challenge. The visit matters because last season Duke won 67-66 at Cameron Indoor Stadium on December 2, 2025, one of three non-conference losses to programs Kalshi priced at 3% or higher on October 18, 2026; Arizona beat Florida 93-87 in Las Vegas on November 3, 2025, and UConn won 77-73 at Madison Square Garden on December 9, 2025.

Miami's tests come in the same stretch. Alabama visits the Watsco Center on December 2 at 9:15 p.m. Eastern in the ACC/SEC Challenge, and the Hurricanes play Texas at the Toyota Center in Houston on December 12; Kalshi had Alabama at 2% and Texas at 4% on October 18, 2026, which puts both at or above the Hurricanes. Florida State plays at Tennessee on December 1 in the ACC/SEC Challenge, Texas A&M at the Toyota Center on December 12 and Houston in Jacksonville on December 20. Tennessee and Houston were each at 3% on Kalshi on October 18, 2026, which makes them the highest-priced opponents on the Seminoles' December schedule.

The Case Against the Florida NCAA Tournament Read

The strongest case against the read is that Florida's price is a price on returning players, and returning players did not protect the Gators last March. The 2025-26 team was a No. 1 seed with most of this roster and went out in the second round by one point. A reader who holds this view points to the three non-conference losses to Arizona, Duke and UConn and argues that the Gators beat the SEC but not the programs they will have to beat in April, which would put Florida with UConn and Illinois rather than level with Duke.

The guard question sharpens it. Lee ran the offense, and Florida's leading returning passers are Condon, a forward, at 3.5 assists a game and Fland at 3.4. The counterpoint is that a team that went 16-2 in the SEC with this front line does not need its guards to be its best players to earn a high seed again.

The same argument can run in Miami's favor. A reader who holds it points out that the Hurricanes finished two games behind Virginia in the ACC and won eight of ten road games, yet Kalshi had them level with Virginia at 2% on October 18, 2026, which says the board is pricing the departures rather than the program.

What Changes the Florida NCAA Tournament Read

The read is wrong if Florida loses its marquee non-conference games again, because a team that cannot beat Duke at home in December is not priced level with Duke in March.

• November 2 and 10, 2026, the in-state openers: Florida plays Miami in Tampa and then visits Florida State in Tallahassee, the first look at all three rosters against known opponents.

• December 1, 2026, Duke at Florida: the ACC/SEC Challenge game in Gainesville between the top two programs on Kalshi's board on October 18, 2026.

• Miami's December: Alabama on December 2 and Texas on December 12, 2026 show whether Miami without Donaldson holds up against programs priced at or above it.

• The SEC and ACC seasons: Florida opens at Texas on January 2, 2027 and closes against Kentucky at home on March 6; Miami plays at Duke on February 1 and at Florida State on March 6, 2027.

• Florida State's December: Tennessee on December 1 and Houston on December 20, 2026, the Seminoles' chances at a win over a program priced near the top of the board.

• Selection and seeding: where each program lands in the 76-team field, ahead of the Opening Round on March 16 and 17, 2027.

When the Florida NCAA Tournament Market Resolves

The market resolves on the 2026-27 Division I men's college basketball national champion. Kalshi's Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion event pays Yes on the Florida contract if Florida wins the national championship, on the Miami (FL) contract if Miami does and on the Florida St. contract if Florida State does. The championship game is scheduled for April 5, 2027 at Ford Field in Detroit, and Kalshi lists an expected expiration of April 13, 2027. The 73 contracts on the event are mutually exclusive, so one program's title settles every other contract No.

All three programs also carry a football question. The Florida college football championship market prices the Hurricanes, the Gators and the Seminoles on the 2027 College Football Playoff title, and the Gators SEC Championship market follows the conference race. The state's professional basketball clubs are on the Florida NBA Finals market. The programs have their own pages at the Florida Gators page, the Miami Hurricanes page and the Florida State page, and every contract this site follows is listed on the markets page and the sports hub.

Questions readers ask

What are the Florida NCAA Tournament odds for 2027?

As of October 18, 2026, Kalshi had Florida at 14% to win the 2027 national championship, second among the 73 programs on its board, Miami at 2% and Florida State at 0.4%. Duke led at 15%.

When does the Florida NCAA Tournament market resolve?

After the national championship game on April 5, 2027, at Ford Field in Detroit. Kalshi lists an expected expiration of April 13, 2027 for the Florida, Miami (FL) and Florida St. contracts.

Where is the Florida NCAA Tournament market traded?

Only on Kalshi, which lists Florida, Miami (FL) and Florida St. among the 73 programs on its Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion event. No second exchange prices any of the three contracts.

Who is the favorite to win the 2027 NCAA Tournament?

Duke, at 15% on Kalshi on October 18, 2026, one point ahead of Florida at 14%. Duke plays Florida at the O'Connell Center in Gainesville on December 1, 2026.

What should I watch before the Florida NCAA Tournament market resolves?

Florida against Miami on November 2 and at Florida State on November 10, Duke at Florida on December 1, 2026, then the SEC and ACC seasons and where all three programs are seeded in the first 76-team field in March 2027.